When can I find the best Black Friday deals? Not on Black Friday!

⏰ Estimated reading time: 3 minutes

Each year, the same debate arises: Are the best Black Friday deals truly advantageous, or are retailers cleverly exploiting our buying urges with “fake discounts”? To uncover the truth, valantic and PriceTweakers looked into the data. We monitored the prices of the top 1,000 products during the Black Friday period and analyzed their development. The result? The best deals are usually not found on Black Friday itself.

The Black Friday 2024 data analysis

For some, Black Friday is the ultimate shopping event; for others, it’s just an ordinary Friday. Yet, almost everyone has an opinion about this American tradition. Particularly about the tricks and techniques retailers allegedly use to tempt us into spending money on “great deals.” But to what extent are discounts real? And what’s the actual story behind Black Friday deals? In collaboration with PriceTweakers, we analyzed the price trends of the top 1,000 best-selling products from September 1 to December 16, 2024. The insights were fascinating.

Black Week: when are the best Black Friday deals online?

By mid-October, over a month before Black Friday, the average price of the top 1,000 products was about 2 percentage points higher than on September 1. After a slight dip in the third week of October, prices rose again in the last week of that month. From November 6, a noticeable drop began, with prices falling by about 3.5 percentage points compared to September 1—and by 4.5 percentage points compared to the mid-October peak. On Black Friday itself (November 29), there was a slight uptick compared to November 26, but prices still remained below September levels. However, the absolute best time to buy had already passed: on November 26, the Tuesday before Black Friday, prices hit their lowest point, offering the best average deals. After November 30, prices gradually increased again, reaching 98.5% of their original level by December 4.

What do these insights mean for consumers?

The data shows that the best deals weren’t available on Black Friday itself but just before. Moreover, the idea that retailers massively hike prices right before Black Friday is a myth. In fact, price drops begin well before Black Week. Consumers who planned their purchases around Tuesday, November 26, enjoyed the greatest price advantages. Interestingly, the largest price increases didn’t occur right before Black Friday but rather in mid-October. This suggests that retailers may have been responding to the lead-up to the holiday season with temporary price hikes.

What can retailers learn from this?

These insights are valuable not only for consumers but also for retailers. Many now opt to spread their deals over the week leading up to Black Friday rather than concentrating all offers on a single day. This approach offers several advantages:

1. More engagement opportunities: By introducing daily deals, retailers can generate fresh content daily—such as newsletters and social media posts—to keep customers engaged.
2. Standing out amidst competition: With more Dutch retailers participating in Black Friday, standing out isn’t easy. Launching deals earlier and creating a “Black Week” can help retailers avoid getting lost in the Black Friday chaos.
3. Combining with Christmas promotions: In recent years, Black Friday and the gift-giving holiday Christmas have been close together. This has led consumers to combine their Christmas shopping during Black Week. By starting with attractive deals early, retailers can capitalize on this trend.

Optimize your Black Friday strategy with PriceTweakers

Finally, tools like PriceTweakers can help you optimize your strategy. PriceTweakers monitors your competitors’ pricing and makes this information accessible. This allows you to maintain control over your pricing strategy and deploy your Black Friday deals more effectively and strategically.